Euro facing harshest of headwinds!


From a technical analysis perspective Euro is set to weaken.  The markets may have reacted to the shock victory of Donald Trump, but by now the US$ dollar has reasserted its dominance with a bounce back in the backdrop of steady US economic fundamentals.  This has primarily manifested in its strengthening against the Euro, which is already mired in political instability.  From a strong 1.12 parity now it is down by a good 500 basis points which is catastrophic given the short duration over which the shortfall has occurred. pnf-target-analysis-of-eurusd term-structure-analysis From an intermarket perspective we witness the long term bond prices have been on the rise as compared to short term, which is giving a negative term structure in the intermediate term.  The Euro has somewhat aped the term structure movement, and now with the negative slope setting in, it can be presumed that the Euro will remain under inexorable amount of pressure.  The Euro has maintained a lag with the term structure, with the currency weakening in the aftermath of a falling term structure.  Further if the Euro is analyzed against the greenback, we witness that a fall down to parity is not off the charts (refer PNF chart).  As the dollar index has continued its accent with an upward 5th wave movement, which probably is the its last leg of appreciation, after which the market dynamics may take a new shape.  Close emphasis will remain on a rebound in commodities which have pretty much floundered in a strong dollar.  While the US$ is in the final motive 5th wave upward trajectory it would be not very practical to think of a Euro rebound, especially as the Eurozone goes via a political metamorphosis and the upward tendency in the US dollar index, which is highly weighted against the Euro, is quite apparent even on the intermediate chart pattern.intermediate-wave-analysis-of-dollar-indexcycle-wave-analysis-of-dollar-index

Long and short term thus gives evidence against an investment in the Euro currency.


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